Methodology
Version 0.1 (pilot)
Neutrality statement
This brief reports what named sources said or did. It contains no recommendations, no opinions and no predictions presented as fact. Contested claims are attributed to the actor making them. Where a statement rests on a single source, or on a source with a declared editorial lean or state funding, the brief says so beside the statement. The authors have no position on any party or government.
How a brief is produced
- Ingest. Public RSS feeds and open statistical APIs are fetched with robots.txt respected and a delay between requests to each host. Items are de-duplicated by canonical URL and near-identical headlines (the official or primary source is kept).
- Select. Items from the last 30 hours are matched to the four dimensions by keyword lists (Greek and English) and source hints.
- Analyse. Automated text analysis reads only the selected items, translates Greek into English, writes 3–5 neutral bullets per dimension, cites the items for each, marks uncertainty, and proposes which rubric factors the cited items meet. It may not add facts that are not in the items.
- Validate. A second, independent automated pass checks each bullet, factor and event against the full text of its cited items. Unsupported claims are dropped; partly supported ones are shown with a "partly verified" marker. All flags are logged.
- Score. The analysis step does not choose the number. Code applies the rubric below to the validated factors and to official data series.
- Publish. Static HTML and JSON, plus an email text version.
Scoring
Each dimension starts at 60 and moves by the points of each rubric factor that is met (points × level: 1 minor, 2 moderate, 3 major) plus data rules from official series. Each factor counts once per day; the total change is capped at ±40; the result is limited to 0–100. 100 = calm, stable conditions; 0 = severe stress. The score describes that day's news flow and official data, not the quality of any government. Trend arrows compare the score with the average of up to 7 prior briefs (flat if within ±2.0).
Politics
| +3 × level | Government secures a confidence vote, passes major legislation with a clear majority, or resolves an internal dispute |
| −4 × level | Cabinet reshuffle under pressure, resignation, parliamentary inquiry, no-confidence motion, or open coalition/party dispute |
| −4 × level | Dispute between state institutions, court ruling against the government, or contested electoral/legal procedure |
| −3 × level | Public diplomatic dispute with an allied or neighbouring state |
| +3 × level | Signed agreement, high-level visit with concrete outcomes, or successful summit |
| −4 × level | Detention or removal from office of an elected opposition mayor or party official by judicial order |
Economy
| +4 × level | Official data release better than prior period (growth, employment, exports, tourism receipts) |
| −4 × level | Official data release worse than prior period |
| +6 × level | Credit rating or outlook upgraded by a recognised agency |
| −8 × level | Credit rating or outlook downgraded |
| +3 × level | Announced or completed foreign or public investment of material size |
| −4 × level | Budget shortfall, bank stress, or major fiscal measure responding to a shock |
| −4 × level | Sharp reported rise in energy or fuel prices affecting households or industry |
| −4 × level | Turkish lira falls more than 2% against the US dollar in a single day or more than 5% in a week |
| −3 × level | Central bank (CBRT) makes an unscheduled rate move or emergency liquidity measure in response to market pressure |
| -5 | Data rule: HICP inflation above 4% |
| -4 | Data rule: Unemployment above 12% |
| +3 | Data rule: Unemployment below 6% |
Defense & Security
| −6 × level | Reported airspace violation, naval incident or unsafe military interaction |
| −4 × level | Official statements by another state that the host government describes as threatening |
| −3 × level | Significant increase in irregular arrivals or a border incident |
| +3 × level | Joint exercise, alliance meeting or bilateral security agreement |
| +2 × level | Defence procurement contract signed or delivery milestone met |
| +4 × level | Confidence-building talks, hotline use, or announced de-escalation measures |
| +4 × level | Reported steps in the PKK dissolution/disarmament process, such as weapons-handover ceremonies or verified withdrawals |
| −4 × level | Turkish or allied forces conduct reported cross-border strikes or operations in northern Iraq or Syria, or a militant attack occurs on Turkish territory |
Society & Information Environment
| −3 × level | General or sector-wide strike or large protest disrupting services |
| −5 × level | Wildfire, earthquake, flood or other hazard with emergency response |
| −3 × level | Health-system strain or outbreak reported by authorities |
| −3 × level | High-profile corruption, surveillance or media-freedom case reported |
| −3 × level | Documented disinformation campaign or fact-check of a widely shared false claim |
| +2 × level | Agreement ending a labour dispute or successful public programme launch |
| −3 × level | Documented bandwidth throttling or blocking of social media platforms or major news sites in Türkiye |
Sources
| Anadolu Ajansı | state_media · tr · State-affiliated national news agency |
| Anadolu Agency (English) | state_media · en · State-affiliated national news agency |
| TRT Haber | state_media · tr · Publicly funded broadcaster |
| TRT World | state_media · en · Publicly funded broadcaster |
| Hürriyet | press · tr |
| Sabah | press · tr · Widely described as pro-government editorial line |
| Cumhuriyet | press · tr · Secular, opposition-leaning editorial line |
| Sözcü | press · tr · Opposition-leaning editorial line |
| Habertürk | press · tr |
| Daily Sabah | press · en · Widely described as pro-government editorial line |
| Turkish Minute | press · en · Critical of the government; focuses on rights and politics |
| Ministry of Foreign Affairs | official · en |
| SavunmaSanayiST | trade · tr |
Data series
Checked but not used
Limits
- Coverage depends on what public feeds expose. Sources without a public feed (for example Parliament's agenda and several ministries) are not covered.
- Press feeds over-represent Athens-based outlets; editorial lean differs between outlets and is not corrected for.
- Automated analysis selects and summarises items. Validation reduces but cannot eliminate errors; follow the links for the original text.
- Some official series are monthly and lag. The bond yield and spread shown are the ECB's monthly convergence-criterion series, not daily market quotes.
- Scores are heuristics for situational awareness; they are not forecasts and have not been back-tested.
- Briefs marked reconstructed were generated after the fact from feeds that only retain recent items.
- A "partly verified" marker means the validator found a detail missing from, or stronger than, the cited source.
Corrections and source suggestions: [email protected]